Very surprised to see not much talk of Kharg Island considering it's meaning. Is a huge ####ing deal, it's not just an island.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...trump-03-13-26
This is where 90% of Iran's refining and oil exports occur (due to how shallow the coast around Iran is). It's the engine of their oil output.
This means several extremely crucial things
USA is clearly planning to take over Iran's oil infrastructure for itself (or at the very minimum completely severing Iran out of its oil export ability)
It's also the perfect location to plan a ground invasion of Iran and makes a ground invasion almost inevitable at this point (especially if the intent is the full takeover of the island).
It's a significant escalation, the video of Bessent after coming back from an urgent discussion with Trump, he likely knew the economic repercussions of the move would be immense.
Ironically, this Guardian article from 2 days ago explains why Kharg would be such a bad target.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...israel-bombers
Quote:
Experts say bombing or capturing the site with US forces would be likely to cause a sustained increase to already surging oil prices, as it would amount to taking the entirety of Iran’s daily crude exports offline.
“We may see the $120 a barrel price we saw on Monday heading to the $150 if Kharg were attacked,” said Neil Quilliam, with the Chatham House thinktank. “It’s too vital for global energy markets”.
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It's effectively semi-permanently removing / locking out 4% of the entire world's oil market for the foreseeable future (Canada sits at 6% for context). Adding this to the 20%-25% that the Strait of Hormuz represents excluding Iran and is expected to continue to have mass disruption, the world is not ready for the sheer shock.
Quote:
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“If the US were to seize it, then you are separating the Iranian oil industry. Iran would have production but couldn’t export, while the US wouldn’t be able to produce. That would set markets in a tailspin; that’s a real standoff,” the analyst said.
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China is one of the most impacted by this, and can't possible be happy or sit on the sidelines forever. And with China controlling 1/3 of the world's shipping fleet, this will have significant supply chain disruption and price escalation.