^
Part of that is management overrating their abilities, as you suggest. Part of it is also that fans don't like their teams to trade down, especially out of the first round, and since the fans are ultimately paying the bills, keeping them happy is a concern even if it means not maximizing the chances of winning.
It's a rational calculation for a GM based on (projected value of the player picked) – (chance that the fans and media will spook the owners into firing me before I ever see him play).
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‘You see in Calgary, [Ryan] Huska is no joke. It’s good. He’s really set on a specific model defensively. If you can be reliable, you have the freedom to play offence.’
—Ethan Wyttenbach
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