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Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
It feels like this has been going on forever. Who's actually leading the odds at this point?
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There was actually disagreement on the timeline for the race at the onset. Apparently some people wanted the race to be longer than it is in order to have more time to engage more Canadians. The NDP party leadership wanted a much shorter race... I am not sure what the benefit of their argument was. In the end this was the compromised timeline.
The last assessment I heard is that Heather and Avi are the front runners and Rob has fallen away since his little AI goof up. Leading at this point, I think it is Avi. There was a recent communication pointing to fundraising dollars and he is leading Heather by a healthy amount (apparently he has almost raised as much money as the other 4 candidates combined).
My opinion on Rob's bid: One thing hurting Rob's bid is that Avi and Rob occupy a lot of the same space (Progressive Populist, Pro-Worker, Class war champion) but Avi is more prepared, brings more policies to the discussion, and can connect those policies back to how it would benefit Canadians. Rob still struggles to do that which makes Rob look unprepared (but I do still like his vibe). I would hope that even if Rob doesn't win the leadership race that he joins the NDP in the next election to secure a seat but my feeling is that Rob is a "leader or nothing" kind of guy, which turns me off a little bit. It is one thing for Carney to have that approach to the Liberals but I feel like an NDP candidate should be willing to run even if they are not the leader.
My take on Heather: Heather is still a very strong choice. It helps that she is a sitting MP with some feathers in her cap and I would hope that her sitting in Alberta with an endorsement from Notley would help bring more Albertans back to the party. (Alberta desperately needs to learn how to stop voting blue out of habit.)
My issue with Heather is that I think she is a bit too centrist / neoliberal / incrementalist, and may not do enough to differentiate from the Liberals or Conservatives. Because of that I view her as the status quo option that won't significantly change enough in how the party behaves, how they are viewed by Canadians, or the results of how many votes they get. I do think she would be better than Singh, and definitely better than Mulcair (as he was a terrible leader), but in this one area I like both Rob and Avi more because they are more willing to change the party vibe.
Here is the final debate: