Quote:
Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin
I don’t follow NCAA hockey or the Hobey Baker. The case seems very strong for Wyttenbach to win it as the leading scorer by a wide margin on a team that looks to have minimal support around him all while they have a good record. Are there other intricacies that could prevent him from winning such as being a freshman, playing in a weaker conference, etc.?
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Conference is the largest one. From an NHLe perspective, over a large sample, the gap between the ECAC and Big10 is nearly as large as the gap between the AJHL and WHL. So, think of it as: how good would an AJHL player have to be for you to consider them the best player in "junior" relative to the best WHL player? (Again, not quite as the gap between ECAC-Big 10 isn't quite as large as AJHL-WHL but closest layman's comparable.)
There are some nuances, one being AJHL teams don't play games versus WHL teams whereas in the NCAA there are inter-conference games. However, as other posters have noted, this can be hard to quantify in very small samples given the gulf in quality of competition even intra-conference. Also, the recent changes in eligibility and dynamics impacting all leagues.
A problem in messaging is models like Byron Bader's just use an equivalency for the NCAA as a whole rather than granular conference-level equivalencies. I believe Bader is aware and plans to roll out a revised version at some point, but for now a reader has to be diligent in keeping the above in mind for players in the Big 10 (underrated) and ECAC (overrated) if digesting his model's outputs at face value. Are the differences huge? No. But they are material and real.
Probably sounds negative but not the intent at all! I'm pumped about the pick and his future. Accuracy and expectation is the intent. Both can be true:
- Lots of good players come out of the ECAC and the AJHL! All-Stars even. What is important is scoring at a young age, which he is. Very young, at that. Great sign and high probability NHLer at this stage and regardless of how his career goes, incredible value for a 5th-rounder. (As an aside, this is why anyone with experience with NHLe models saw nearly zero chance of Spencer Foo becoming an NHL player despite the hype. Waiting until 22 to hit point-per-game in a weak conference = minor leaguer.)
- NHLe models that don't use conference-specific equivalencies overrate ECAC production to a degree, so expectation should be tempered a little. Again if relying on those outputs exclusively.