Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
I didn't realize that the PWHL used "the gold plan" for their draft order, which I love and advocate for.
https://www.thepwhl.com/en/news/2024...r-of-selection
Proposed in the late-2000s by statistician Adam Gold, the ‘Gold Plan’ is also known as ‘Draft Order of Selection by Mathematical Elimination.’ The PWHL’s adaptation of the system rewards team success upon elimination from playoff contention.
Once a team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it begins earning ‘Draft Order Points’ in all subsequent games (including all regular-season games that begin following a team's elimination), using the league’s standard points system that awards three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime or shootout win, one point for an overtime or shootout loss, and zero points for a regulation loss. The team with the most Draft Order Points at the conclusion of the regular season will earn the first selection in each round of the draft. The non-playoff team with the fewest Draft Order Points will select second in each round of the draft.
If the two non-playoff teams tie for the most Draft Order Points, the first pick in each round of the draft will be awarded to the team with the most regulation wins after elimination. If still tied, the team with the most combined overtime and shootout wins post-elimination will earn the top pick. If still tied, the team with the fewest overall regular-season standings points will earn the first selection in the draft (e.g. the sixth-place team). If the teams finish with identical point totals in the regular-season, the league’s regular tiebreaker rules will be utilized to determine the team in sixth place. The league’s standings page will begin displaying Draft Order Points once a team is eliminated from playoff contention. |
It would definitely change the buyer-seller dynamic. Teams poised to miss the playoffs might avoid selling their best players, some might even become moderate buyers if they are so far out at the trade deadline. I think it could also over compensate good teams that have either just been unlucky or play in good divisions. For example, a team that is missing the playoffs because they just happen to be a sliver weaker in a strong division, but has their schedule lopsided towards teams not in their division down the stretch after elimination, would disproportionately benefit. Or in the case of Florida this year who have been to the finals 3 years in a row, have a stacked team, and is out mostly due to being a victim of their own success, could realistically go on a tear, still miss the playoffs, and sneak into a high draft position.
I would prefer a system that uses a variety of metrics to determine lottery odds, like success over the past several years, draft position and lottery wins. Plus whatever other relevant analytics or metrics.