Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
I would also add the caveats that a scout on the Flames very much did see something special that could translate, albeit further from a sure thing than someone in the first round (acknowledging there’s no such thing as a sure thing).
And I don’t think it has anything to do with scouts being “typically correct” or not either. 5 scouts might have a guy ranked 5 different places, but where they end up going depends on who has watched him, what the team list looks like, what picks a team has, etc. For all we know St. Louis correctly identified him as a good pick for the late first/early second, but didn’t have a pick until 147 so missed out.
I think people put way too much stock in draft position. Scouting is educated guessing and there are a whack of reasons why the draft order shakes out the way it does. Yes, size makes it easier to apply a player’s talents at the NHL level, but I don’t think it’s the determining factor it once was and I think scouting/drafting is slow to catch up.
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One of the interesting things Conroy or Button said on a draft related clip is that part of their drafting process considers whether a player may fall and be available later in the draft.
Button also said after this past draft that they grabbed Phillips in the 3rd round, higher than they might have, because there had been a run on big bodied defenders and they wanted to get one.
They may have ranked Wyttenbach as a 3rd round talent but felt he was more likely than Phillips to fall to their next pick in the 5th round with the way the draft was going.
Similarly, a few other teams may have considered Wyttenbach as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect, but they ranked a couple of players higher (or prioritized size) and figured they'd take him with a later pick if he was available (and then had the same discussion in the 4th and 5th round with their lists).
EDIT: I think this is where BPA for teams is modified even against their own lists. They're actively analyzing the way a draft is going (both who they've picked so far against their pipeline and what players other teams are taking) and adjusting their list as they go. So after the first and maybe the second round, they might not necessarily be taking the top player on their list.