Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
I would take that Abacus data with a bit of a grain of salt. Other pollsters aren't seeing the same thing, and even Abacus' data is shifting wildly. Here's January:
Overall: LPC: 40; CPC: 40
18-29: LPC: 25; CPC: 50
But then here's December:
Overall: LPC: 41; CPC; 41
18-29: LPC: 39; CPC: 39
I have trouble believing that the 18-29 numbers shifted by 25 points while the overall was essentially identical between the two polls.
Basically every other quality pollster that breaks it out by age shows the Conservatives' primary demographic being middle aged people. U30 or U35 are split pretty evenly and seniors lean Liberal.
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Just as an addendum, Abacus just released a new poll now showing the Liberals with a significant lead among 18-29 year olds:
Overall: LPC: 43; CPC: 39
18-29: LPC: 43; CPC: 35
Obviously there wasn't actually a 33 point swing in that age demographic over the last couple of weeks, so it's a good reminder to avoid reading too much into cross-tabs from single polls.