[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

By that “logic” the NDP would likely have had zero candidates run for re-election in 2019.

You think NDP MLAs had friends and family telling them they were personally disappointed that their gov't did...lightbulbs?

I hope that you’re right. At the same time though I think your theory seems to be too heavily reliant on the assumption that nothing else will have changed in any of those ridings that could factor into the results, good or bad. I think it’s worth mentioning that none of the ridings that flipped in the last election needed a recall campaign beforehand to make it happen. It’s also worth noting that there were a couple of recall campaigns against NDP MLAs but no one, including yourself, seems to be very concerned about those having an impact on the results for those ridings in the next election.

Teachers defying the back to work legislation and the UCP’s likely over the top response would have probably done more to sway voters than all of these recall campaigns combined. Too bad they didn’t have a strike fund which would have put them in a better position to do that.

By your logic teachers defying the order would have simply allowed the UCP to paint them as criminals, doing more damage than good.

There was no path to success from teachers continuing the strike. UCP would have been delighted to let it continue indefinitely until the labour movement either got their #### together or imploded. But it kinda looks like its imploding anyways given the latest from the Lethbridge firefighters union...seems like it was probably a mistake to go so overtly partisan+political (contrary to many members' personal politics) instead of focusing directly on the collective bargaining issues

Again, I hope that you’re right. I’m not dismissing your opinion as completely implausible and to be clear I have seen different campaigns that have worked out that way you’re suggesting but I’ve also seen more that have gone the other way. Mind you there were also different elements at play in those cases.

Bottom line is you shouldn’t underestimate how easily a lot of people can be influenced by manipulated data so sometimes it’s better to have unknowns than it is to swing for the fences and end up with a result that can be used against you.

I don't underestimate it at all. The question is WHO is being influenced. The UCP are mainly just going to rile up their existing base. Hearing spin about a recall "failure" isn't getting [m]any lapsed UCP voters off the couch to vote again next time. But IMO recalls staying in the news cycle has better odds of nudging less informed/engaged citizens closer to sanity:

Reluctant UCP voter --> stays home --> protest vote to Alberta Party --> resistance vote to NDP --> tepid NDP supporter --> NDP supporter

There's thousands of people in each category right now. You have 4 years to nudge them on to the next phase. The recall attempts help that more than they hinder it. I don't really care how UCP cult members twist it in their feeble minds. If it sends any reluctant UCP voters backwards then they weren't reluctant to begin with, they were just lying to themselves and others to justify being a ####iot.