[Cali Panthers Fan]

As always, with trades that involve picks, especially picks several years down the road, it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to evaluate the absolute quality of this trade.

We saw this with the other recent trades for picks. Everyone was pretty upset at the time. Then you start making those picks and see the young quality talent added to the system and eventually the starting roster.

Take the Markstrom trade alone. At the time, people were freaking out that the Flames didn't get enough for him, saying they could have done better if it happened earlier. Many posters here panned the trade, saying that Bahl wouldn't be anything better than a 6/7. The pick alone didn't factor into anyone's thinking because we didn't know who it would be yet. Fast forward, and we now have Bahl, who I think at minimum is a strong #4 shutdown d-man on a contending team (think Mikkola for a recent comparable on a cup winner), and Cole Reschny, who projects to be a really good two-way center with character and scoring ability, seen recently on the World Junior roster for Team Canada (not an easy roster to crack). Reschny likely ends up as a 2nd line center on a good team, maybe a 3rd line center at the very worst. All of that for Markstrom, who's play has declined and is now considered an expensive back up in New Jersey.

I love Andersson, but he was playing at his absolute peak this year, and he's likely near the peak levels for his career. In a couple years, his play will probably start to decline, and at that point, we'll have drafted a player that will likely be an important roster piece for our contention window, just like Reschny. There are several other pieces involved here as well that could contribute more than we could imagine right now, or at least mitigate against that 1st round pick not working out as anticipated (see: Honzek).

The bet made by Conroy here is that Vegas is going to age out of their contention window in 2 years, and those picks will suddenly have a lot more value than they do right now. In 2 seasons, they will only have Eichel, Marner, Hertl, and Barbashev (final year) signed as forwards, and Theodore, Hanifin, Korczak and McNabb signed on defense, unless Andersson signs as well. However, given that he seems intent on testing free agency, Andersson signing with Vegas isn't 100%. That's an okay core of players, but the parity around the league shows us that it doesn't take much to have a down year or to suddenly fall out of contention (look at Winnipeg, Toronto, and even Florida as examples).

When you also consider that Vegas has little to nothing coming up in their prospect base to replace their older supporting cast, it seems to me that it's a really good bet to take the Vegas picks later, especially if they have a chance to win the cup this year. Sure it hurts our 2026 draft pick if they win, but if they do, the 2nd becomes a first in 2028, and that pick could be quite high unless they rapidly retool and sign a bunch of UFAs to surround that core. Let's also not forget that in 2 years, that core is going to be in it's early to mid 30's, and no longer at their peak.

These are the kind of moves that really do have long-term thinking involved. If you were hoping for a massive win that pays off right now, then you don't have the patience for an actual rebuild. You know, the thing the entire base is clamoring for. This is what it looks like. Let it play out.