[stemit14]

It is interesting that this year is one of the draft years where wingers are ranked at the very top of the draft class. In the last 20 years, here are the wingers selected 1st overall:

Patrick Kane (2007)
Taylor Hall (2010)
Nail Yakupov (2012)
Alexis Lafreniere (2020)
Juraj Slafkovsky (2022)

A few things I notice looking back on those draft classes when focusing on the first round:

1. Patrick Kane is the only one of those players that I would consider a superstar over the span of his career. It’s too early to make that call on Slafkovsky though. Hall had an MVP season and has been considered a top line winger for most of his career.
2. Compared to draft classes over the last 20 years that had centers or defencemen go first overall, the draft classes where wingers went first overall were, in hindsight, “weaker” draft classes. Looking back at the first rounds, it’s actually pretty interesting how much you can pick out the weaker draft classes by looking for the ones with wingers at the top of the draft. I know everyone says this upcoming draft is a good draft class but it seems like they say that every year. I’m sure they said similar things in the drafts listed above but, if you look at the selections in those drafts, there’s not much in terms of star players. This year could be an exception though.
3. Scouts were usually correct in ranking the centers of those drafts below the wingers. The only centers from the first rounds of those drafts that I would say ended up being star players are Seguin (2010 draft) and Stutzle (2020). It’s still too early with the 2022 draft to make that call though but I think most would agree Slafkovsky looks to be better than the centers in that draft class (pretty close with Cooley though).
4. It’s a similar case with defencemen in those drafts. There are good defensemen in the first rounds of those drafts but I don’t see any Norris-level defencemen. Oilers definitely blew it with the Yakupov choice but that was probably the worst draft of the last 20 years. Vasilevskiy should have gone 1st overall that year. Forsberg and Reilly probably should have gone 2nd and 3rd in that draft.
5. Makes me think the best choice if the flames pick first overall is McKenna. For all the criticism he has faced lately, I think he has the highest ceiling and could be considered the most skilled winger to go first overall since Kane. If this draft follows the trends of previous drafts where wingers went first overall, there might not be many superstars to be had anyways so might as well take a swing at the guy with the highest ceiling.

All this might make me temper my expectations a little in terms of what the flames will get out of this draft. I think they will get a legit top line winger if they get either of McKenna or Stenberg. I think they will get a top pairing defenceman if they get Verhoeff. I think they will get a good/great 2nd line center if they get Lawrence/Bjork/Malhotra.

I think the “tank” will be even more important next year if there are centers ranked at the top of the 2027 draft (eg. Alexis Joseph is at the top of a few of the very preliminary rankings for 2027). That could be the opportunity to get the superstar center that’s needed to be a top contender in the league.