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Old 01-08-2026, 01:34 PM   #19600
united
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The Blackhawks and Kraken are both a perfect 4-0 in 2026 while the Flames have yet to earn one point. And just like that, a massive swing. As the season progresses and the range of outcomes reduces, larger swings will become regular and more prevalent. Hilariously, the projected threshold to qualify for the playoffs is down to 84 points in the West (likely to moderately increase as games tighten down the stretch)

Median finish: 32nd place with 74 points, 1 point behind the Canucks and 2 behind the Blackhawks. The Kraken and Blues are also projected to finish with fewer than 80 points.

Pick first: 13% of simulated seasons
Pick top five: 70% of simulated seasons
Pick top ten: 93% of simulated seasons
Make playoffs: 4% of simulated seasons (84 points to get in)

Quote:
Originally Posted by united View Post
December 30 update from The Athletic's model that simulates the remainder of the season 50,000 times.

Hot streak has resulted in some material movement.

Median finish: 30th place with 77 points, 3 points ahead of Kraken and 7 points ahead of the Blackhawks. Canucks, Blues, and Sharks all projected to finish with fewer than 80 points as well FWIW.

Pick first: 10% of simulated seasons
Pick top five: 53% of simulated seasons
Pick top ten: 85% of simulated seasons
Make playoffs: 8% of simulated seasons (88 points to get in)
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