Quote:
Originally Posted by Tron_fdc
I did a little bit of work with an engineer from Venezuela a few years back that used to work there and I recall him telling me about the issues kick starting their O&G industry if it were to happen. From what I recall there has been a significant rust out of assets since they nationalized the industry, and a major brain drain. So Trumps statement of "up and running in 18 months" is absurd when you take into account the amount of time and money needed to bring it back to life (likely 10 years and billions of dollars).
So with oil hovering around $60 and factoring the heavy crude discount, along with the still uncertain political environment (keeping in mind their industry is still nationalized), it's no wonder large producers aren't lining up to take it on. It's a MASSIVE undertaking.
It's a pretty good Epstein distraction though.
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The thing that is kind of in the back of my mind is that Trump is saying that the oil companies are going to go in there and spend money to get their oil industry working again, but can he actually force them to? Did he even talk to them before this?
I get that if things work out, the oil companies can make a killing by investing there, but it still seems really risky with no real regime change and no guarantee that they just won't nationalize it again in the future. The next Chavez or Maduro could just say thanks, and take it again and the whole gunpoint diplomacy has to repeat.