Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
Interesting, but do crude stocks tell the full story? I think you'd just look at exports to the US from Alberta. Otherwise you are mixing their other suppliers and work out increased demand, and other issues.
So looking at imports to PADD3 from Canada we see:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_mov...A_mbblpd_m.htm
Which does show a step drop in May 2024(TMX opening) from about 680 to a rough average of 450. I would have thought from all the talk we were ready and able to fill any new pipeline we make. |
Yup, exactly. That’s a pretty steep drop on a relative basis.
What’s also important to note is that because of TMX, the WTI-WCS differential has dropped significantly. So not only are there less volumes being sent from Canada to the refineries that require heavier crude, but those refineries also have to pay more for the barrels they do receive, which cuts hard into their bottom line. Remember refining is a pretty low margin business.