Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePrince
Yup, Canadian production didn’t increase meaningfully since TMX has opened, so volumes that are being sent via TMX out to the coast are volumes that aren’t going down to the US south anymore. The southern refineries are ones that need heavy crude. And surprise, surprise, that’s the kind of crude Venezuela produces.
You can look at crude stocks in Cushing relative to oil prices. Generally, when stocks are low that means you have a pretty tight supply/demand balance, and therefore higher oil prices. So the last time stocks were this low, oil price was much much higher, whereas sitting at <$60/bbl right now. So we have the US setting production records and supply outpacing demand right now, but Cushing stocks low relatively, showing that volumes are being pushed elsewhere, ie. via TMX.
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Interesting, but do crude stocks tell the full story? I think you'd just look at exports to the US from Alberta. Otherwise you are mixing their other suppliers and work out increased demand, and other issues.
So looking at imports to PADD3 from Canada we see:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_mov...A_mbblpd_m.htm
Which does show a step drop in May 2024(TMX opening) from about 680 to a rough average of 450. I would have thought from all the talk we were ready and able to fill any new pipeline we make.