Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Love stuff like this.
So this sent me down a rabbit hole.
I took a trade value chart, and then compared value by picks taken for every team over the last three years compared to the value they would have had if they just picked in their position by standings and didn't add, trade away, move up or move down.
Clearly the greater value is at the top of the draft and terrible teams have had more value.
And winning the lottery is huge as the value differential is huge. The Islanders added just under 1200 "points" by moving up in the lottery last year.
So luck is still involved.
The Flames had the 14th highest expected draft points based on their standing in the three seasons (15th, 25th and 14th), but ended up 10th in draft points because of the accumulation of draft capital adding 347 in value.
The worst is Florida (-756 points)
Rank by Differential
1. Chicago
2. Islanders
3. Utah
all three of those won lotteries for big point differentials. Chicago added extra picks as well.
4. Nashville
5. Philly
6. San Jose (adding picks)
7. Detroit
8. Calgary
9. St. Louis
10. Washington
Calgary certainly in that rebuilding group.
|
The Flames also had the 2023 draft in that 3 year cycle where Brad had traded away their 3rd round pick and their 5th round pick so Conroy was starting from a deficit and the Toffoli trade made it slightly better
Suspect if you did the same exercise in July of 2026 the Flames would be top 3 on the list. 5 picks as of right now in the first 3 rounds would bump them up significantly alone once you drop the 2023 draft. Any picks or prospects drafted in 24 or 25 that they pick up in trades would also improve their position if the same exercise was done in July of next year.