Quote:
Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden
I was doing a little thinking about scouting/ draft position, so I looked back at the top five picks between 2013-2023 to get a sense of how often top 5 picks a "busts".
3rd Jonathan Drouin **
4th Sam Bennett **
5th Michael Dal Colle
4th puljujarvi
5th Juolevi
2nd Nolan Patrick
5th Barrett Hayton*
3rd Kirby Dach*
5th Alex Turcotte
4th Shane Wright*
5th David Reinbacher***
* under performers but still NHLs
** good players but not super stars
*** still too early to say for sure
In the end 11 out 50 picks in the top 5 wind up under performing in some capacity. That said, 5 out 50 are true busts.
With that in mind there is a 10% chance when you pick in the top 5 you'll leave with nothing, but you will notice that most of this is clustered in the 4th and 5th picks.
In the top three you have a 3 /30 chance of picking a player who under performs, and you have only a 1/30 chance of picking a "bust"
|
There's a whole lot more "good but not superstar" players in the top 5 picks over that span. I think you have to consider adding Beniers, Power, Mactavish, Luke Hughes, Lafreniere, Byfield, Kaako, Byram, Dubois.