Quote:
Originally Posted by Niemo
There are 3 factors that don't get brought up enough when it comes to trade value between off season and trade deadline:
1. In the offseason, 1st round pick with very light or no protection are available and 'unknown' in terms of placement. I say unknown because you can trade with a strong team from last year and they could have a bad season. Look at NYR, VAN, BOS from last year and FLA and TOR of this year as an example. It's not guaranteed, but it's a better chance at a better pick that trading for a 1st at the deadline that is pretty much guaranteed to be 25>.
2. Our own picks moving down in the draft. Look at the cost to move up - from say 10th to 4th Overall. Every year we spend the full month leading up to the draft working very hard at moving up to top 5 and every year we hear at the draft that the price is too high. Will we really get that much more at the deadline to make up enough assets to bridge the gap between 10th and 4th overall (arbitrary example)? Not to mention injury risks.
3. There are much more sellers at the deadline and less buyers. In the offseason, there are typically less sellers and more buyers. (supply vs demand).
So pure speculation as an example:
If Rasmus Andersson was worth a 1st + 3rd in the offseason and he is worth a 1st + 2 2nds at the deadline and Nazem Kadri was worth a 1st + 2nd at the offseason and he is now worth 1st + 2 2nds at the deadline.
If having Ras + Kadri = 10th Overall vs starting the season without Ras and Kadri = 4th Overall......
Does 3 2nds (minus a 3rd and the chance at slightly worse 1st rounders) get us from 10th OV to 4th OV? No......it does not. Not even close.
|
I don't know if #3 is true, including because while there are buyers in the off-season there is also the option of signing players without having to give up assets. So that takes away from the demand side.
On this...
"Does 3 2nds (minus a 3rd and the chance at slightly worse 1st rounders) get us from 10th OV to 4th OV? No......it does not. Not even close."
Valid but if you are doing the math, you have to factor in probabilities. For each player you are selling what is the % probability it moves you up from 10ish to 4ish. It's not 100%. It's something less than that. So you can't say does that equal us going from 10th to 4th OV, it's more like is that worth it relative to a x% chance of going from 10th to 4th.
I assume the team thinks through all this.