Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
If they miss the playoffs it's likely going to be in the range of 14-16 I would think. I can see them going on a heater or two for a bit but not sustained like years past.
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They better hope McDavid figures it out. If he keeps up his play some models have them finishing 25-28th in the league. He seems to be playing tired. He is getting the same shooting%, but not taking the same amount of shots, high danger or otherwise.
Comparing 5v5 his first 27 games this season vs. his other first 27:
Points/GP: 0.56 (lowest in career)
Goals/GP: 0.22 (tied lowest - 2017)
Shots/GP: 1.67 (2nd lowest - 2015 rookie year)
Sh%: 13.3% (13.69% career avg.)
xGoalDif 5v5 his first 27 games in a season:
2023: +10.38
2024: +9.42
2025: +0.64 (career low for first 27 games)
5v5 High Danger xG:
2023: 2.103
2024: 3.354
2025: 1.252
For the first 27 games this year he is playing more 5v5 minutes (~18/game), 5v5 scoring is at a career low, 5v5 shot volume near career lows, and high danger chances and finishes lowest since 2018. Although they had a similar starts the two previous season that was often due to "bad PDO" on top of dominant play. That domination doesn't exist this year, they are just No Good.