[mile]

https://lancebroz.substack.com/p/cod...n-moinelo-data

We last saw the now-31-year-old Cody Ponce with the Pirates in 2021, and he was not very good. He sat 93.3 on his four-seamer, had three glove-side shapes, and a bad changeup. He actually fared well against right-handed hitters but got demolished by left-handed hitters. Flash forward to 2025, and Ponce obliterated the KBO with a 1.89 ERA and a 30.3% K-BB in 180.2 innings. The two biggest changes are a velocity spike and a new changeup.


Ponce sat 95.5 mph in the KBO on his four-seamer, a notable increase from 2021. I have his max velocity up at 98.5 mph, routinely touching 97+ in outings.

Without even considering anything else, he becomes a viable starting pitching candidate for a team afraid to spend big money this offseason in an interesting starting pitcher market. Ponce’s new kick-changeup is intriguing.


I have confidence this changeup will send his poor lefty splits from past MLB years into oblivion. It’s a plus pitch and a key factor in why I think he’s an interesting candidate to impact MLB with his return.

Ponce feels like a great value for the price teams will pay… <$12m per year? The bet is that his fastball works at this higher level of velocity, and his changeup stymies lefites. Both are more than reasonable wagers to make given the cost involved in this decision. Mix in some projection that an MLB team makes him less four-seam reliant to right-handed hitters, and we could be looking at a strong combination of both stuff and mix.