I'm curious about the next polling numbers re: separation since the pipeline "deal". Prior to that, separatists among the public were at about 30-35%, which is still shockingly high in my opinion.
After seeing the "highlights" from the UCP AGM on the weekend, I think that it is undeniable that the UCP has essentially become a separatist party. The majority of members support separation (65% in May), they are as unimpressed as ever with Carney, Liberals, Canada, etc., even though he's basically acting like a conservative, minus the social conservative, Maple Maga stuff.
I can't see the legislature, with the UCP holding a majority, endorsing any statement in favour of federalism. The separatist base would go bananas. I'd love to see it, but it won't happen.
I could see Smith and UCP playing with fire and letting this go to a referendum. And while the majority of Albertans do not support separation, it would be dangerous to invite a Brexit-like vote and having it backfire after a swell of populism over... something. Maybe it is BC and/or First Nations doing anything less than rubber stamping a pipeline, for example. "See! Canada is broken! Carney lied to us!"
The UCP is trying to straddle two lanes as they did with Kenney. Even Kenney, who was many things but at least he was a Canadian first, warned us about what would follow. My concern is that, while separatist movements have come and gone in the past, never before has a ruling party done so much to enable it. This big tent, post-merger, "united" conservative movement (both provincially and federally) has proven to be a takeover by the Wildrose and Reformers respectively.
The UCP, based on what their membership wants, is undeniably a separatist movement at this point.
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