Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
Historically, I believe, teams that win most often do so in the early years of their upswing (when their highest performing players are on ELCs or lower second contracts and can be complimented with more naturally expensive veterans). Those teams are also the most likely to repeat.
If they don’t, they face a retool (sometimes significant) to re-open the window. You have one-offs that buck the trend (usually thanks to generational players + stellar goaltending) but it’s less common.
Montreal is probably has this year and next to legitimately contend before they face at least a small retool, turning over 30-40% of the roster. The core is set, but with Hutson and Demidov increases coming over the next two years it makes a ton of sense for them to push the chips in this year and try to become legitimate contenders.
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A trend that was a trend from 2008 to 2015? How about the last decade? Teams like Colorado, Tampa, Florida who drafted their core, wrapped their core up and continued to draft and trade for young assets and win championships when that core hits their mid to late 20s.
Monteal has Demidov that will get a big raise and with a rising cap that contract could be more than $11 mil. But as the cap rises so does the value of everyone else in that core's contract.
Including this year, the following contracts have:
Suzuki - 5 years
Slafkovsky - 6 years
Caufield - 6 years
Dobson - 7 years
Hutson - 9 years
The following are off the books before Demidov contract is up:
Laine - $8.7M
Anderson - $5.5M
Gallagher - $6.5M
I also see Dach not getting a QO. Maybe he comes back but it will be for less money and he makes $3.3M
Over 20M of non-contributors coming off the books with only Demidov with a big raise. Kadri is a great add for this year, but if that move fails his contract eats up the rest of Suzuki's prime time contract years. Not worth the risk when there could be a better fit and their prime-time window IMO in a year or 2 from now.