[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Wolven

While I agree that Canadian energy is better for the environment than many of the alternatives... I am not sure which markets we think we are going to reach with this new pipeline in the year 2036+?

Also, of those buying markets, which ones do we think will actually care about how "good" Canada oil is? Countries like India will only care about how "cheap" it is. Any country that is worried about environmental and social rights is likely on pace or ahead of Canada (and especially Alberta) in their energy transition and will not need to buy an increasing amount of oil in the late 2030s.

Some people are saying we would use this pipeline to increase oil sales to China... but China is talking about hitting peak oil demand in 2026-27. Some reports are suggesting that China may have actually peaked this year, which is crazy, but I wouldn't doubt their ability to pivot on that scale or their desire to keep that information hidden to mess with the rest of the world. Either way, if China does peak before a new pipeline is built then that would mean that not only would they not be interested in buying more oil from Canada... but the oil they have stopped buying would need to find a new customer. As the existing oil supply shifts to cover the shrinking demand, it gets harder and harder to see where our increased Alberta oil supply will land in a decade.

India represents 25% of the global increase in oil demand right now. If they get their energy transition to accelerate over the next decade then that is pretty much game over for the new pipeline before it is built.

Also, the speed in which alternative technology innovations are being discovered and then moving to mass production is staggering. Giving the alternative technologies a decade to discover, prove, and start mass production puts a huge amount of risk onto the new pipeline project.

I would move ahead with the TMX expansion ASAP and shift focus from a new pipeline to additional industry diversification in Alberta. Alberta should get in on the new sodium-ion battery innovation and build a mega-plant of energy storage as well as a factory for manufacturing of next-gen batteries for other North America jurisdictions (or any other bleeding edge technology that will be in high-demand throughout North America).

In short, Alberta is good at oil because Alberta is good at innovation. Instead of focusing on oil, we should be focusing on our ability to drive innovation and applying that spirit to industries with real growth opportunities for future generations.

Do you think demand for oil is going away in 10 years?

Because, wow.