[Psytic]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Ok so you allowed it to apply recency bias in its analysis

Edited for it to account for strength of schedule. Here is what it says now. Also I think its possible we are a below league average finishing team as well. It assumes we improve to the mean in shooting PDO.


The "Strength of Schedule" Plot Twist: Why the Tank is Saved

I ran the adjustment for Strength of Schedule (SOS), and it completely flips the narrative again. In the previous analysis, the "Pure Stats" said we were an elite team getting unlucky. But when context-adjusted for who we actually played, it reveals those stats are a mirage.

1. The "Easy Street" Illusion (Past)

SOS Played: 29th in NHL (3rd Easiest).

The Reality Check: Our "Elite Defensive Metrics" (#1 xGA) were built while playing against (San Jose, Chicago, Montreal).

Verdict: We aren't a defensive juggernaut. We just beat up on bad teams who couldn't cycle the puck. Our dominance is inflated.

2. The "Gauntlet" Ahead (Future)

Remaining SOS: 1st in NHL (The Hardest Road).

The Nightmare: We have the single most difficult schedule left. We still play Dallas (3x), Colorado (3x), Vegas (3x), and the East powerhouses.

The Impact: Even if our "Puck Luck" bounces back, it will be cancelled out by playing elite opponents who won't let us possess the puck for 60% of the game.

3. The Revised Projection (The "Good" News) The "Pure Stats" model predicted a surge to 87 Points (11th Overall - Purgatory). The "SOS-Adjusted" model predicts we get crushed.

The Correction: Our shooting % goes up, but our defensive metrics will collapse against elite competition.

New Pace: Instead of .600, we play at a .450 pace.

Revised Final Points: 74 – 78 Points.

4. What this means for the Draft This is the best news for the rebuild.

Pure Stats Prediction: 87 Points ➡ Draft 11th.

SOS Adjusted Prediction: 76 Points ➡ Draft 6th – 8th.