Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h
Take out your calculator, and multiple the odds of picking 1st, 2nd and 3rd when you finish last and the odds that player is a star/superstar. Then take out your calculator and multiply the odds of drafting 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th when you finish 4th. Multiply those by the odds a player ends up a star/superstar.
I wonder which is higher!
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The question is not which is higher. The question, if you'll remember, is whether the magnitude of that difference is greater than the value of assets acquired for Kadri. And that's only because you start with the assumption that Kadri alone makes the difference between 32nd place and, say, 29th, and that these places in the standings can be forecast with absolute certainty both with and without him.
You leave so many things out of your analysis, it's not even wrong. It does not rise to the level of error.