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Old 11-21-2025, 01:42 AM   #2175
Jay Random
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h View Post
Yes it would

Take a look at some statistics

https://thehockeywriters.com/success...l-draft-picks/

I don't think people realize the difference between a 1st or 2nd pick and 4th pick. Its massive (And 4th pick has historically been better then 3rd)

You drop from a 60% chance of a 750 pt player to a 25% chance
A 25% chance of a 1000 pt player (Hall of Famer) to 10%

These are massive drop offs.

And for what? To increase your trade value of Coleman or Kadri by a small amount?
I see. So if the Flames do trade Coleman and Kadri for whatever they can get right this minute, that will cause them to win the lottery and draft 1st overall?

If not, your entire comparison is invalid. You should be comparing the weighted value of the top 3 picks, based on the odds of the last-place team winning either lottery draw.
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