[Enoch Root]

We’re 20 games in – the first of probably many benchmarks, where people will try to assess where we are, and what this season is. I created this thread to discuss the season, and most importantly, how the team should manage it.

After 20 games, we’re sitting 32nd as everyone knows, but only 3 pts back of STL and NSH. That fact concerns some people, who think management is one victory away from discarding the rebuild. But I think that view is paranoid. And wrong. Let’s look at playoff chances:

The Flames are already 9 points out of the playoffs. That is actually remarkable, and really hard to do in only 20 games. As someone pointed out in another thread, no team had fewer than 15 points after 20 games last year. So the Flames’ 13 pts is impressively bad, and no one is going to look at it and say “a couple Ws and we’re right back in this!” There are 9 teams in the west that are at least 4 games above .500, while the Flames are 7 games under. 11 back, after 20 games is – again – impressive and unmistakable. Also, there are 4 teams in the division at least 4 games over, and EDM is +2, so you can’t even make the argument that there is hope because the division is weak.

In other words, after 20 games, the playoffs are done. No chance. Stick the fork in them.

That means there are only two things left to worry about and discuss: where exactly will we finish? And what do we do with the roster, to get there (i.e. trades)? There is already a trade thread, so we don’t need to discuss specific trade proposals, but we can discuss timing and depth.

I will start by saying this: Trading Andersson is a MUST. And I think we need to move at least 2, and preferably all 3 of Andersson, Kadri and Coleman (though if Coleman is kept until next year, that isn’t the end of the world). And Conroy needs to get at least one of those trades done before Christmas. One by Xmas, and another before the Olympics. If they are all still here coming up to the trade deadline, that puts way too much pressure on Conroy and he may be forced to settle for returns he doesn’t like (or not move them at all). He needs to control the narrative, and to do so, he needs to space them out over the next 3 months.

If two are moved before the Olympic break, that will leave Conroy to focus on other players at the deadline, such as Coleman, Lomberg, Pospisil and Hanley. That doesn’t mean moving them all, but he can see what the interest is, and move one or two if the return is there.

To me, that is the perfect scenario: at least two significant moves, and maybe more. And doing so in a controlled manner, over the course of the season.

As for where they finish, I doubt the team will actively chase 32nd. However, I do think they will take the approach that they are not going to do anything to try and push their way up the standings. I think a reasonable goal is bottom 3, with how the standings look right now. And maybe one or two other teams enter the fight along the way, and it becomes a bottom 5 thing. But I don’t think there will be any more than 5 ‘tank’ teams. If we finish 32nd, great! But anything in the bottom 5 is fine, and bottom 3 is great, IMO. And trading at least two of the guys above pretty much guarantees it.

But expecting them to lose every game is foolish. As is hoping or expecting the players to want to finish last. At the start of the season, hardly anyone thought we were bad enough to finish bottom 3. Now it seems almost inevitable. Be happy, and enjoy it. Then we see how the lottery plays out.


TL/DR: I think we finish bottom 3. And I think we should get 1 trade done before Xmas, and another before the Olympics.