Quote:
Originally Posted by browna
A lot did go right. You need skill, pitching, as well as luck and intangibles to get in the playoffs and certainly to succeed and that is what they embraced and did.
But everything still has to line up to have it all work out.
One solitary less win in the regular season and I don’t think they get into the WS at all, nevermind game 7, maybe not even past the Yankees in the DS, because they would’ve had to play the WC round and would’ve used Gausman Yesaveage and maybe Beiber against Boston. Leaving Scherzer for Game 1 vs the Yanks if they get through and that series and anything past that, plays out differently than it did.
That regular season loss could’ve come in May when they came back from being 6-0 to Boston or vs Tampa in the last series when Varsho hits a late HR to sink Tampa.
So there’s a lot of circumstance and timing and pure luck to get into the playoffs, to get through 2 rounds and to get to a Game 7 WS. And it doesn’t stop there.
What if Rojas stumbled a second time, or Hernandez reaches his arm up and accidently hits Pages in the face and drops the ball? The Jays win it all.
The Jays (as any team who goes that far and wins or finishes second) have to have all or most of those breaks go their way in season, and the critical playoff tipping points, go mostly their way too.
It just seems (as Flames in 2004) too monumental a task to have to once again have all or most of those outcomes repeat next year over 162 regular season games and 18+ playoffs to get anywhere near the exact same opportunity again when they were inches away multiple times from winning it all 48h ago now.
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For the playoffs sure, there is definitely luck required.
And Springer was better this year than I think they have any right to expect. But Santander was definitely worse. If those offset then I think you're fairly even on the position player side. Depends on whether Clement/Barger regress, although Barger especially could get better as well.
If they can sign 1-2 SP to replace Bassitt/Scherzer's innings I think they'll have a similar regular season record (eg 90+ wins and comfortably make the playoffs).