Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Yes, I missed that scenario. So... Flames pick 1st if:
1) Flames win 1st draw
2) OTT wins 1st draw and the Flames win round 2
3) OTT wins 1st draw and a team ranked 12-16 wins round 2
3) any team ranked 12 to 16 wins round 1 and the Flames win round 2
4) any team ranked 12 to 16 wins round 1 and OTT wins round 2
5) any team ranked 12 to 16 wins round 1 and a team ranked 12 to 16 win 2nd round
Sum the odds for each of these, and that's their odds of picking 1st
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From my understanding, that's not exactly how it works, but someone please correct me if I'm wrong here.
As I understand it, the first draw is for the 1st overall pick and the second draw is for the 2nd overall. A team winning the 2nd draw cannot win the 1st overall pick.
So if we finish last and either win the first draw or a team ranked 12-16 wins in, we're not involved in round 2 at all and we get the 1st overall pick. We're only in the second draw if a team from 2-11 wins the lottery, in which case there is a possibility we lose that draw as well and drop to 3rd if a team not ranked 13 to 16 won the second draw.
If Ottawa were to win the draft for 1st overall, assuming the previous precedent stands, they would re-draw the 1st selection and the above would apply to the re-draw before the 2nd draw were to occur.