Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
Surely someone with the self-selected name 'Mathgod' can be more precise than that, but I'll help you out on that one. If we assume a game between two teams deep in the playoffs is a 50/50 winning probability for either team then a team down 2-0 in a best of 7 has an 18.25% chance of winning.
Lived experience suggests the odds are not quite that good, with teams down 2-0 winning 16.1% of the time in nearly 100 samples. See: https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-l...0-in-alcs-2025
That seems about right to me - any team that makes the CS is good at baseball so the probabilities should be close to 50/50, but if one team is up 2-0 maybe they're a bit better and they have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning the next games. Still, whether you use 18.25% or 16.1% I don't think "extremely unlikely" is the right descriptor.
Edited to add: polymarket has the Jays as an 18% chance of winning the AL right now, which suggests that my odds above are at least reasonable. |
Sure, do the super original thing and be the millionth person to cite my username as a way to get a dig in on me.
The thing about the odds you're not taking into account is that the Jays hugely overachieved this year - they came into the year expected to be nowhere near the playoffs. They are undoubtedly much better than last year, but I'd argue they're in the CS largely because they have the Yankees' number and match up well against them.
They also blew their huge division lead down the stretch, barely hanging on to the division instead of winning it handily. (I think a truly good team wouldn't have blown that lead.) Without their 8-5 record vs the Yankees (just one fewer win), they don't win the division, and have to play a best of 3 vs Boston and who knows what happens.
The Jays needed a lot of things to go their way to win the division - and they got those things. Now it appears those things are suddenly going the other way. I don't think this team is good enough to overcome the sudden swing in fortunes. I'd argue they aren't as good as their 94-68 record would suggest.
The Mariners on the other hand have really hit their stride down the stretch and continued it into the playoffs. They went 17-1 to end their season (losing their final 3 games after they had already clinched their division). They then found a way to win a best of 5 series vs a team that had their dominant ace starting 2 of the 5 games. They played a lengthy, emotional 15 inning game and still managed to win vs the 'mighty' Jays less than 48 hrs later despite travel and short rest. Followed that up with a blowout of those 'mighty' Jays the very next night.
This Mariners team is very good and is playing its best baseball at the right time. They remind me a lot of the 2 teams that knocked the Jays out in 2015 and 2016. This script is all too familiar, and it's why I'm confidently predicting the Jays won't make a comeback and win this series.
One other thing - the Jays and Mariners were both dominant home teams this year, and sub-.500 teams on the road. The Jays just blew their home games, and now have to win 2 of 3 in Seattle just to have another chance at home. Going in as a mediocre road team into a building where road teams don't win very often... it looks bleak. It looks very bleak.