Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
Sorry, their chance to turn things around was today, and they blew it bigtime. This team isn't coming back to win 2 of 3 in Seattle followed by 2 straight at home (Rogers Centre where home field advantage doesn't seem to mean anything vs the Mariners).
Jays pitching is too inconsistent to make this kind of comeback. The bats have also gone cold. It's over unless something miraculous happens. Possible but extremely unlikely.
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Surely someone with the self-selected name 'Mathgod' can be more precise than that, but I'll help you out on that one. If we assume a game between two teams deep in the playoffs is a 50/50 winning probability for either team then a team down 2-0 in a best of 7 has an 18.25% chance of winning.
Lived experience suggests the odds are not quite that good, with teams down 2-0 winning 16.1% of the time in nearly 100 samples. See:
https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-l...0-in-alcs-2025
That seems about right to me - any team that makes the CS is good at baseball so the probabilities should be close to 50/50, but if one team is up 2-0 maybe they're a bit better and they have a slightly better than 50% chance of winning the next games. Still, whether you use 18.25% or 16.1% I don't think "extremely unlikely" is the right descriptor.
Edited to add: polymarket has the Jays as an 18% chance of winning the AL right now, which suggests that my odds above are at least reasonable.