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Originally Posted by GullFoss
That effectively makes the oil sands a Canadian resource as much as an Alberta one. Like it not, facts are facts. So pipelines too benefit all Canadians by allowing for more production. That narrative needs to be amplified because continued development of the oil sands (which could be doubled in terms of daily production) would result in a meaningful improvement in public services across the country without needing to increase personal or corporate income tax to pay for it.
I'm dont work in oil and gas (nor am I invested in it), but I genuinely appreciate what a gift the oil sands are, allowing us a substantially higher level of public services relative to the taxes we pay. I think we'd all be better off as Canadians if that was more widely appreciated. There's a reason why Saudis, Norwegians, Emeratis, Kruwatis, etc have a consensus to maximize oil and gas production. It's because the citizens can clearly sees how much they benefit from it.
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That only works as long as you prescribe to the OPEC forecast of "OIL FOREVER".
The fact is, there are a lot of experts who believe that peak oil demand could be in the next 5-10 years (depending on how much sabotage we see from the right wing politicians and their O&G overlords).
Looking at facts around the world:
- The speed in which China is electrifying their country and their ability to control that change within their nation, it is reasonable to expect that China could be off oil faster than any other country
- Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia are all working hard to electrify their nations as well. (I've been personally very interested in watching Japan's effort because their Perovskite solar cells are going to be transformative.)
- In the UK and EU, they are also driving green initiative, carbon taxes, and electrification of their industries. (I think the archimedes wind turbine looks like an impressive scientific feat to maximize energy generation while reducing noise)
- North America was moving quickly toward electrification but Trump has put a stop to a lot of that
From a capitalistic point of view, it is very interesting to see the momentum building up to replace O&G. The market knows that the end is coming (even if they do not know when) and now it is a race to see what will replace the mighty Oil and who can make the most money in the new energy technology markets.
All of this is to say that there is another reason that there may be no private company willing to invest money into a new Alberta to coast pipeline:
There is a huge risk that the pipeline won't be completed until after peak oil and the profitability of the pipeline would then be unlikely or could even be a huge loss. Again, from a capitalism point of view, if this new pipeline was easy money then there would be a line of companies kicking down the door to the Canada MPO to be the proponent. However, they are not doing so and it is likely because of the risk that it won't actually be profitable. Corporations do not like risk, they only like profit.
As for the "reason why" the Saudis, Norwegians, Emeratis, Kruwatis, etc are maximizing production right now... that could simply be an attempt to maximize profit before peak oil demand hits. Essentially, they are cashing out. If you believe that the peak oil demand is on the horizon then the next logical step is to consider why OPEC is lying (to make mountains of money, duh!). The Saudis are actually investing a lot of money into renewables, almost as if they want to be on the other side of the energy transition BEFORE the O&G industry peaks and starts to decline. (Their target is to be 50% renewable energy by 2030 and they are investing billions into making that happen)
Personally, I would rather see Alberta invest heavily into the energy transition and industry diversification of our province. Whether you believe peak oil demand is 5 years or 30 years away, transforming our province to that degree needs a lot of runway. We can still produce and sell oil at high amounts but we should strive to no longer be dependent on the industry. Once we are reliably independent of O&G, the continued revenue from that industry would be a bonus to the betterment of our people instead of our one and only lifeline.