Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
The IEA does not do projections or predictions. They publish scenarios based on complex economic models.
That may sound like a prediction but it differs significantly because it's simply a mathematical outcome based on inputs, not where anyone thinks anything "will" be.
For example, the "Net Zero" scenario starts with the endpoint and works backwards. It's meant to be instructive on what needs to be done if that were the target. That is not a prediction as no one thinks that is going to happen.
As for some the comments with regards to OPEC's outlooks, I think if you were to review their prior outlooks you would correctly disregard whatever they say. Their raison d'etre is to help their members use their collective market size to influence their income. I'm not sure there's any reason for them to do anything but rosy projections?
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Well they do forecasts, and they may not capture all the things everyone wants to see, but they are something to go by. If you have other sources I like data. For instance, the US eia is saying very similar things, with US petroleum and other liquids consumption peaking in 2026. Certainly not 2050. Would be interesting to look at their accuracy from previous reports.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/dat...=A&sourcekey=0