Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
A stat can be wrong. Using your example, the definition of an HD chance isn't perfect. And a shot that took place from an HD location may not have been dangerous at all (due to time and space). So even the simple counting of HD chances for and against can result in an inaccurate number.
And that illustrates the primary problem with sample size: the quality, or accuracy of events is not consistent. Over larger sample sizes, that should correct, to an extent. But in small sample sizes it doesn't.
Then there is randomness, which is a factor in all things, and a very significant factor in hockey.
But let's use one of the stats that started this conversation: Parekh's individual PP contribution (which was on the chart as a small negative). What is included in that stat? Do we know that the things included are the right things? Even if they are the right things (which is of course impossible to define), were they all counted? Some items would be more nuanced, such as changing position to open lanes - were those all counted? How far do you have to move in order for it to count? What if you made a nice play, but at the same time , another player coughed up the puck and it went the other way - did your nice play get counted?
And it goes on and on and on. So yes, stats can be wrong, and can be garbage (and that's just one example of how)
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Semantics I guess.
We both agree that stats should and will improve, but I wouldn't call a HD count wrong.
I'd just lean on what it says.
Player X was on the ice for a count of X of the following occurrence. In this case the HD stat is a shot from the home plate that came on a tip, rebound or pass into the home plate.
Once you meet that criteria of course there is a range of danger within that count, but it doesn't make the original count wrong or the stat wrong. It's better to not let tips, rebounds and passes into the most dangerous scoring area on the ice.
Players that give up more of those are probably not playing as well as players that give up fewer.