Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
The Athletic article isn't unfair at all, and it pretty much meets what I said a few days ago.
The Flames had Wolf and work ethic propel them last year, and they'll need a similar boatload of help this year to do the same.
The numbers in the article suggest veteran skill erosion moving the Flames from 2.20 goals per game to 2.08.
And that a -13 hockey team with a goalie at +25 is really a -38 team which is 27th overall in projections.
It's a very fair assessment unless you are the hands to ears "I know you are but what am I" type.
But can they defy the odds again?
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Personally it more so reads as Dom/Athletic trying to justify/reason with how badly they missed on their projections with the Flames last year.
The Athletic had Wolf saving 25 goals above expected.. where other credible model sites had him in the 12-15 range. Additionally if they are going to point to the goaltending overperforming you have to also take into account that the team underperformed it's expected goals totals in the range of 17-21 goals as well.
Digging deeper I also think their assessment of Weegar is just flat out wrong, and doesn't take into account that he was tasked with carrying around two guys who are arguably not even everyday NHL players.
At the end of the day projections are immensely difficult to do. There are just too many factors at play to really put much credence into them anyhow.
Will be fun to follow some of these regardless.