Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
Combined 3/6 again, this time Yankees/Astros, so still on pace for 92 wins if they go 500 the rest of the way. They have the tie-breaker against all current AL playoff teams except Houston.
The Yankees would need to go 13 out of 17 to beat them in that case, which is 0.765 or a 124 win pace. Boston would need to go 12/15 or 0.800/130 win pace. Neither seem likely to me even with the Yankees having an easy schedule, so I think 92 wins is enough for the AL east this year.
They need to stay ahead of the Astros to get the wild card bye, and 92 should be plenty for that as well. While the Astros have the tie-breaker, they also would need to win 13 of their last 15 to get 92 wins, which I think is pretty unlikely.
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Since I wrote this they've won 4 in a row, so if they go 500 from here on out they'll have 94 wins. The Red Sox can't get to 95, and the Yankees would need to win all 12 of their remaining games. Neither the Mariners nor Astros could catch them if they get 94 wins either. They also have the season series vs the Tigers, so if they go 6-6 to finish off Detroit would need to go 10-2 to take the AL overall.
Probably the most important is the Yankees, and the magic number there is 7 with a combined 24 games played by the two teams.