Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
They took a combined 3/6 from the Brewers/Reds which leaves them on pace for 92 wins if they can go .500 the rest of the way. Boston and New York both had to finish at a very strong pace to beat that, but they've been playing at/close to that pace for awhile now. NYY are 8-2 and Red Sox are 7-3 the last 10. Jays have the season series vs both of them so either would need 93 wins.
Yanks would need 16 wins in 23 games to get 93 (0.695 or 113 win pace), while the Sox need 15 wins in 21 games. (0.714 or 116 win pace)
It's also looking quite good against the Astros (5-5 their last 10). They likely have the tie breaker (3-0 vs the Jays with 3 to play), but they need 15 wins in 22 games to get to 92 wins.
All-in even 500 the rest of the way is going to be a good result, although if they could be even 93/94 wins instead of 92 that would give them a much better margin and also likely means they win the AL pennant.
While that doesn't make much difference in terms of the playoffs I think
1) winning the pennant is awesome
2) they've won the WS every time they've won the pennant, so the narrative would be good
3) they'd be going into the playoffs with momentum
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Combined 3/6 again, this time Yankees/Astros, so still on pace for 92 wins if they go 500 the rest of the way. They have the tie-breaker against all current AL playoff teams except Houston.
The Yankees would need to go 13 out of 17 to beat them in that case, which is 0.765 or a 124 win pace. Boston would need to go 12/15 or 0.800/130 win pace. Neither seem likely to me even with the Yankees having an easy schedule, so I think 92 wins is enough for the AL east this year.
They need to stay ahead of the Astros to get the wild card bye, and 92 should be plenty for that as well. While the Astros have the tie-breaker, they also would need to win 13 of their last 15 to get 92 wins, which I think is pretty unlikely.