Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch
They said on the Fan that no first baseman has attempted that throw in extra innings in the past 2 seasons, until now. Given that your main concern is to stop that placed runner from scoring it would seem an obvious play to make if it was even remotely doable, which apparently it isn’t. Except for Vlad.
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Agreed that's probably because Vladdy has a better arm than most 1B. But I think the risk has something to do with it.
MLB teams might have this broken down more (Extra innings, etc) but according to Fangraphs here:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-run-...for-the-2020s/
With 1 out and Runner on 1st, teams score an average of 0.48 runs
With 1 out and Runner on 3rd, teams score an average of 0.86 runs
With 0 outs and runners on the corners, teams score an average of 1.78 runs
That compares to where you start the next inning (0 outs, runner on 2nd) which has an expected value of 1.12 runs.
So making that throw saves on average 0.38 of a run, or saves a run about 40% of the time. That's huge for extras, and if you put up a zero you're likely to win. But missing it and not getting an out is nearly a whole run worse than taking the easy play at first (1.78 expected runs vs 0.86 expected runs). And giving up 2 means you're very likely to lose.
So the cost of missing the play is greater than the benefit from making it, so you need to be fairly confident you can make the play to attempt it. Obviously that confidence depends on all sorts of things (speed of the runner, how good a break he gets, how hard the ball is hit, how strong the arm is) and only some of those things are known in advance of the play. So on a split-second decision where the risk is greater than the reward I'm not surprised most 1B (who are often not the best defenders) play it safe.
Again, not a criticism of Vlad - that was a great play.