Here is a video that confirms everything I already believed.
Really the problem with Tesla is and remains lack of redundant/overlapping system.
With these safety systems it's not like having 3 different modes at 97% gives you a .97x.97x.97=91% formula. It's actually the opposite the secondary system fills 97% of the 3% gap, and the tertiary system fills 97% of the .09% remaining giving you a system that is 99.9973%. Not really exact numbers, but that is a lot closer to how it actually works. To the reason you need multiple systems.
And as others have pointed out a system that has a 0.0027% failure rate is not the same as saying there will be an accident 27 times for every 10,000KM. It is more like saying the car will briefly put itself at risk of an accident 27 times out of every 10,000 calculations, then a second latter a new calculation should kick in and correct the risk.
Accidents will happen when the 1 in 370 error happens at a time where the next calculation cannot correct for the error, or the 1 in 20 billion chance that 4 of those error stack up in a row, the 1 in 7 trillion chance that 5 of those errors stack up in a row...
It seems very achievable to reach FSD at that rate, the problem now is and remains filling in the unknowns. If the system has a bad reaction to an unknown, it's not necessarily a calculation error and that is a different problem than saying the error rate is too high to get to FSD. It's about feeding enough information into the system that virtually every situation is a known/expect situation.
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