Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
They took a combined four out of six from the Marlins/Twins, which puts them on pace for 92 wins if they go 500 the rest of the way. That wouldn't normally win the AL east but I think it's starting to look like this year it might. The have the season series clinched vs the Red Sox and Yankees, so those teams would need 93 wins to win the division. The Red Sox are 2nd right now with 74 wins and 28 games left. For Boston to get to 93 wins they need to go 19 for 28, or 0.678 baseball (110 win pace). That's getting to be a pretty steep hill to climb, which is great.
Nearly as important imo is staying in the 1st/2nd division leader spot and getting the bye. That requires staying ahead of the Astros, where they are still up by 4.5 games. The Astros swept them earlier in the year and they have 3 left to play, so its likely the Astros will have the tie-breaker. So Houston probably only needs 92 wins, which would be 19 for 29 or a 106 win pace. Brewers/Reds up next - seems like a split should be doable...
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They took a combined 3/6 from the Brewers/Reds which leaves them on pace for 92 wins if they can go .500 the rest of the way. Boston and New York both had to finish at a very strong pace to beat that, but they've been playing at/close to that pace for awhile now. NYY are 8-2 and Red Sox are 7-3 the last 10. Jays have the season series vs both of them so either would need 93 wins.
Yanks would need 16 wins in 23 games to get 93 (0.695 or 113 win pace), while the Sox need 15 wins in 21 games. (0.714 or 116 win pace)
It's also looking quite good against the Astros (5-5 their last 10). They likely have the tie breaker (3-0 vs the Jays with 3 to play), but they need 15 wins in 22 games to get to 92 wins.
All-in even 500 the rest of the way is going to be a good result, although if they could be even 93/94 wins instead of 92 that would give them a much better margin and also likely means they win the AL pennant.
While that doesn't make much difference in terms of the playoffs I think
1) winning the pennant is awesome
2) they've won the WS every time they've won the pennant, so the narrative would be good
3) they'd be going into the playoffs with momentum