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Calgary4LIfe · 08-28-2025, 01:43 PM

I am interested to see how accurate this model looks. The standouts to me is Anaheim being too low, Montreal taking a step back after being a young team that is rising through the standings, and Buffalo improving. I think the model falls apart with Buffalo since it wasn't a lack of talent in Buffalo, but rather a lack of culture there.

Flames spiraling down the standings can most certainly happen. Who had Boston taking a huge dive this last season? Nashville imploded.

4 points for me:
1) Kadri - he will be 35 when the season starts. He has been EXCELLENT in the previous 2 seasons. The thing with aging players is that, frequently, the drop in performance is both sudden and substantial. Will it happen this upcoming season? No idea. I just wouldn't feel comfortable betting on it either way. In many cases, it seems like an aging player just became replacement-level overnight. It could be an injury, and when it heals, it was too hard to get back to that level, or whatever. I am hoping he has another great season in him, however.

2) Backlund. This teams most underrated and underappreciated player. This team would be sunk without him. Playing the toughest minutes against the league's top lines, and out-chancing and often out-producing them head-to-head? Kadri or Frost are not even close to the level that Backlund was last season. With that said, he is 36, and will turn 37 when the season is winding down. He was playing injured last year (another point that the usual band of critics on this site seem to conveniently ignore) and still put up a solid season. However, father time undefeated. Being a defensive player, he may age more gracefully, as he can still be a very effective defensive player for a few more years, but the drop-off might be considerable as well. Favourite player on the team for me personally, and I hope he still manages to keep going for as long as possible, but we just never know. Giordano went FAST IMO, and he was a similar fitness nut.

3) Season start. Last season, the Flames had a relative luxury - a slow start to the season in terms of GP. It allowed for more rest between games, more practices, etc. I think it helped get them to those wins, and it helped with their belief. When a team believes, it is much easier to put in that kind of effort. I don't think there was another team in the NHL that was as consistently hard-working as the Flames. If they start slow, does it snowball the other way? Will it erode their belief a little, and will it then in turn erode the effort level to any degree?

4) Andersson trade. Can the Flames legitimately absorb the loss of another top 4 defencemen, without replacement? I don't think so. I love Parekh, and I think he has the chance to not only end up as an elite defencemen in this league, but a franchise-changing one at that. However, expecting him to be able to defend as well as Andersson has is not being realistic. There will be growing pains, and I am very high on Parekh not only because he is an offensive dynamo, but because I am confident that he will become reliable enough defensively as well. I wouldn't be so high on him if he was looking like another offence-only defender. I just think it will take time, and that pairing will see more goals against.

I can absolutely see that the Flames over-performed last season season, and could under-perform this upcoming season. That's a huge swing. I think things just snowball quite quickly for teams like the Flames that play so deep into the margins. That's not even looking at things like Vladar leaving, a significant injury to someone like Weegar (imagine trading Andersson and Weegar being out for a long stretch? ouch!). There are so many variables, and this is why sports-betting sites make a tonne of money, right?

I wouldn't be surprised if the Flames put in another really good season, with the vets hanging onto their current levels, and the young guys taking a step forward. I can also see a huge drop off too. If I was forced to bet, I would bet on them having a drop off. I guess we will see.

It will be interesting to see how accurate this model ends up being. I think this model will be fairly good overall, and you can tell that just by looking at his standings. What I don't think this model will be good at - and I haven't seen one that has been - is being able to accurately predict the exceptions. Boston and Nasvhille dropping to where they were, teams like the 2015 and 2025 Flames' exceeding expectations. So while I find this model to be interesting (specifically with a few points like Anaheim probably being too low, Montreal probably being too low), I also feel it is not going to be close at predicting the exceptions, as no current model really is good at it.

However, that's a huge part of what makes sports incredibly interesting an fun. How teams can suddenly just implode, and sometimes how a band of misfits can just come together and blow up at the right time out of nowhere. Maybe AI + quantum computing will be able to accurately figure out the exceptions by looking at team cultures, better predictive injuries, and account for things like personalities and off-ice drama that breaks teams down or helps them gel together and exceed expectations. Until then, this is just more of the same, though still interesting, and probably a useful exercise nonetheless - especially for those that participate in online gambling.

08-28-2025, 01:43 PM	#615
Calgary4LIfe Franchise Player Join Date: Jun 2010 Exp:	I am interested to see how accurate this model looks. The standouts to me is Anaheim being too low, Montreal taking a step back after being a young team that is rising through the standings, and Buffalo improving. I think the model falls apart with Buffalo since it wasn't a lack of talent in Buffalo, but rather a lack of culture there. Flames spiraling down the standings can most certainly happen. Who had Boston taking a huge dive this last season? Nashville imploded. 4 points for me: 1) Kadri - he will be 35 when the season starts. He has been EXCELLENT in the previous 2 seasons. The thing with aging players is that, frequently, the drop in performance is both sudden and substantial. Will it happen this upcoming season? No idea. I just wouldn't feel comfortable betting on it either way. In many cases, it seems like an aging player just became replacement-level overnight. It could be an injury, and when it heals, it was too hard to get back to that level, or whatever. I am hoping he has another great season in him, however. 2) Backlund. This teams most underrated and underappreciated player. This team would be sunk without him. Playing the toughest minutes against the league's top lines, and out-chancing and often out-producing them head-to-head? Kadri or Frost are not even close to the level that Backlund was last season. With that said, he is 36, and will turn 37 when the season is winding down. He was playing injured last year (another point that the usual band of critics on this site seem to conveniently ignore) and still put up a solid season. However, father time undefeated. Being a defensive player, he may age more gracefully, as he can still be a very effective defensive player for a few more years, but the drop-off might be considerable as well. Favourite player on the team for me personally, and I hope he still manages to keep going for as long as possible, but we just never know. Giordano went FAST IMO, and he was a similar fitness nut. 3) Season start. Last season, the Flames had a relative luxury - a slow start to the season in terms of GP. It allowed for more rest between games, more practices, etc. I think it helped get them to those wins, and it helped with their belief. When a team believes, it is much easier to put in that kind of effort. I don't think there was another team in the NHL that was as consistently hard-working as the Flames. If they start slow, does it snowball the other way? Will it erode their belief a little, and will it then in turn erode the effort level to any degree? 4) Andersson trade. Can the Flames legitimately absorb the loss of another top 4 defencemen, without replacement? I don't think so. I love Parekh, and I think he has the chance to not only end up as an elite defencemen in this league, but a franchise-changing one at that. However, expecting him to be able to defend as well as Andersson has is not being realistic. There will be growing pains, and I am very high on Parekh not only because he is an offensive dynamo, but because I am confident that he will become reliable enough defensively as well. I wouldn't be so high on him if he was looking like another offence-only defender. I just think it will take time, and that pairing will see more goals against. I can absolutely see that the Flames over-performed last season season, and could under-perform this upcoming season. That's a huge swing. I think things just snowball quite quickly for teams like the Flames that play so deep into the margins. That's not even looking at things like Vladar leaving, a significant injury to someone like Weegar (imagine trading Andersson and Weegar being out for a long stretch? ouch!). There are so many variables, and this is why sports-betting sites make a tonne of money, right? I wouldn't be surprised if the Flames put in another really good season, with the vets hanging onto their current levels, and the young guys taking a step forward. I can also see a huge drop off too. If I was forced to bet, I would bet on them having a drop off. I guess we will see. It will be interesting to see how accurate this model ends up being. I think this model will be fairly good overall, and you can tell that just by looking at his standings. What I don't think this model will be good at - and I haven't seen one that has been - is being able to accurately predict the exceptions. Boston and Nasvhille dropping to where they were, teams like the 2015 and 2025 Flames' exceeding expectations. So while I find this model to be interesting (specifically with a few points like Anaheim probably being too low, Montreal probably being too low), I also feel it is not going to be close at predicting the exceptions, as no current model really is good at it. However, that's a huge part of what makes sports incredibly interesting an fun. How teams can suddenly just implode, and sometimes how a band of misfits can just come together and blow up at the right time out of nowhere. Maybe AI + quantum computing will be able to accurately figure out the exceptions by looking at team cultures, better predictive injuries, and account for things like personalities and off-ice drama that breaks teams down or helps them gel together and exceed expectations. Until then, this is just more of the same, though still interesting, and probably a useful exercise nonetheless - especially for those that participate in online gambling.