Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h
To put into historical perspective the 32 OA pick only has a 18% chance to play 500 games (I would say an average career) and a 10% chance to play 750 games.
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I think that's way too high for average. 300 games is basically 4 seasons in the NHL, and that's more inline with Average. 500 would be more your journeyman type as it likely means the player was pro for close to 10 seasons.
But your point about the number of picks who do play that many games is definitely valid. Many people are flush full of optimism with picks from the past couple of years. 8 years down the road the number that end up playing 200 games for the Flames will most likely be a lot lower than what people think will happen today. In a way I think the Flames are laying a foundation to have a few good better than average support players to eventually take on the Journeyman roles. But at some point they'll need a couple guys picked higher to help a Parekh if they want to become an upper echelon team.