Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
The fact is, every team in the cap era (except Vegas and Seattle, which haven't been around long enough) has done a traditional rebuild, including the Flames. The Flames just never won a lottery, so they never picked higher than 4th in their rebuild.
Yet most of those rebuilding teams have not won a Cup.
Why don't people understand the concept of correlation? If you have a bin containing 30 black balls and two white balls and draw at random, of course most of the balls you draw will be black. If 30 out of 32 teams have done rebuilds, of course most of the Stanley Cup winners will be teams that have done rebuilds. It says absolutely nothing about causation one way or the other. The black balls didn't choose to be black so they would have a better chance of getting picked!
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First, all I said is arguing against a rebuild because there are examples of rebuilds that didn't result in a cup is silly. Second, these aren't random unrelated points. Teams that won cups had elite talent. A lot of that elite talent was the result of drafting high and often during a rebuild.
We lack the elite talent needed to be a contender. The most probable way of getting that elite talent is in the draft. Having higher and more picks gives you a better chance of getting that elite talent. The fact that it isnt a guarantee of winning a cup doesnt change the fact that its our best chance of winning a cup.