Quote:
Originally Posted by CFO
After the 2026 draft (another couple 1st round picks) the flames will essentially be year 3 into rebuild. Drafting 6 first round players in that span plus a ton of other young assets either drafted or acquired through trades. This team will look night/day different in 2 years from now.
|
Will they? Non top drafted players usually take a long time to make an impact.
Cornato was drafted 13th in 2021
Zary was drafted 24th in 2020
The Flames had 2 picks similar to these spots this season (Although worse)
Both the Cornato and Zary picks for their draft spot look like very good picks/successes and it's taken 4 and 5 years for them to make the lineup consistently / start to make impacts.
We are looking 3-5 years down the road for the guys we've been drafting to make an impact/reshape the team assuming they turn out - which is a big IF and statistically low probability
People also tend to overestimate the likelihood that their teams players will work out and how effective they will be.
This is a great article for showing the % of events by draft position (and also shows the huge difference between a top 2 pick being a superstar vs picks 3-4-5 OA historically
https://thehockeywriters.com/success...l-draft-picks/
To put into historical perspective the 32 OA pick only has a 18% chance to play 500 games (I would say an average career) and a 10% chance to play 750 games.
It is why they need to continue to get way more bullets (draft picks). An extra late 1st for 3 seasons in a row isn't even close to cutting it - especially if their other 1st round pick is landing in the mid 1st round.
To get an average NHLer at picks 25-32 (500 games) you are looking at ~25% , so you need 4 1sts to average 1 average player. In the 2nd round its 17%.
Even with great drafting and development a lot of the players the Flames have picked these last 2 years are never going to develop in all likelihood.
The Flames have not been running enough of a draft pick surplus IMO to be at the start of a rebuild. This combined with also not getting a top pick means the odds of finding stars in the draft is going to be low.