Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
The fact is, every team in the cap era (except Vegas and Seattle, which haven't been around long enough) has done a traditional rebuild, including the Flames. The Flames just never won a lottery, so they never picked higher than 4th in their rebuild.
Yet most of those rebuilding teams have not won a Cup.
Why don't people understand the concept of correlation? If you have a bin containing 30 black balls and two white balls and draw at random, of course most of the balls you draw will be black. If 30 out of 32 teams have done rebuilds, of course most of the Stanley Cup winners will be teams that have done rebuilds. It says absolutely nothing about causation one way or the other. The black balls didn't choose to be black so they would have a better chance of getting picked!
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If you look at some of the best rebuilds, the actually have a lot in common with the current Flames build.
LA
2003 - 10 picks 3 1sts - D Brown & Brian Boyle best picks - no top 5
2004 - 9 picks 1 1st - no quality picks - no top 5
2005 - 9 picks 1 1st - Kopitar & Quick - no top 5
2006 - 9 picks 1 1st - Bernier & Lewis - no top 5
2007 - 10 picks 1 1st - Simmonds, A Martinez - 1 top 5 Hickey
2008 - 9 picks 2 1sts - Doughty - 1 Top 5 Doughty (Franchise Dman)
2009 - 10 picks 1 1st - Schenn - 1 Top 5 Schenn (Traded)
Rebuild over - picked top 5 3 times, got 1 franchise guy and traded 1 player with high end potential to acquire M Richards. 9 or 10 picks for 7 straight years.
Chicago
2001 - 13 picks - T Ruutu & C Anderson - no top 5 pick
2002 - 9 picks - Babchuk, Keith, Burish - no top 5 pick
2003 - 10 picks - Seabrook, Crawford, Byfuglien - no top 5 pick
2004 - 17 picks - Bolland, Bickell, Brouwer - 1 top 3 pick C Barker
2005 - 12 picks - Hjalmarsson - no top 5 pick
2006 - 9 picks - Toews - 1 top 5 pick Toews (Franchise Center)
2007 - 7 picks - Kane - 1 top 5 pick (Franchise Winger)
2008 rebuild over - 3 top 5 picks Toews and Kane and 1 bust in C Barker - traded to acquire Leddy. 7 years 77 picks.
Both teams started the rebuild without picking in the top 5. Both teams after drafting a ton of picks slowly had teams that slipped down the standings and got the top 5 pick. Good chance this happens to the Flames as very young teams with potential often lose more than they win, especially without a superstar.