Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
The fact is, every team in the cap era (except Vegas and Seattle, which haven't been around long enough) has done a traditional rebuild, including the Flames. The Flames just never won a lottery, so they never picked higher than 4th in their rebuild.
Yet most of those rebuilding teams have not won a Cup.
Why don't people understand the concept of correlation? If you have a bin containing 30 black balls and two white balls and draw at random, of course most of the balls you draw will be black. If 30 out of 32 teams have done rebuilds, of course most of the Stanley Cup winners will be teams that have done rebuilds. It says absolutely nothing about causation one way or the other. The black balls didn't choose to be black so they would have a better chance of getting picked!
|
#1 is a fluke, I think everyone understands that.
Top 5, maybe top 3, is all a scorched earth rebuild can plan for, ideally more than one to get your anchor players.