Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason14h
It’s not negative - it’s statistics and odds
2nd rounders have a 10-20% chance of even making 100 games in the nhl .
Late firsts - 20+ are around 30%
That’s not being stars - that’s making the NHL and carving out any sort of a career
So when people are slotting in all our 2nd and 3rd rounders , and our mid and late firsts as our go forward teams and saying we are short 1 player - it statistically is delusional
The same fans then say how SJ and Chicago will be bad for a decade despite having better prospects than us . I guess their prospects will be all the ones to fail and ours will all hit
This team has a good - not great - prospect base right now . There is very little star level talent though . We can hope some of these guys develop into star level quality - but the odds are more won’t even make the NHL .
Our 1st rounders this year have a better chance of never playing then being impact 2nd liners statistically . Obviously scouting and development play a part it isn’t completely random- but the odds are still very low at development into an above average or star level player
There’s a reason 45 players get taken before our 2nd rounders . And of those 45 less then half will end up even having a career
If we get 2 top 6 forwards out of our current crop that is a success . If we find 2 top 4 D (Parekh looks like a safe bet ) that is a success. A few more might end up on your lower lines or 5/6 D if you’re lucky
We are still missing a ton of top end talent and thinking we’re developing 4-5 top 6 forwards and 3-4 top 4 D out of what we currently have is statistically astronomically unlikely
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Statistically, you should find a new team to cheer for If this is your outlook.