Quote:
Originally Posted by indes
I think it would be insane.
Guaranteed $128M (8x16)
vs
Guaranteed $32M (2x16) +
Possible $132M (8x16.5)
He could get injured or sick and miss out on $96 MILLION. No one in their right mind takes $164M possible dollars instead of a guaranteed $128M. It's not even just a career ending injury. He could get ill like Toews, cancer like Mario, Blood clots, heart conditions - He could lose part of his heel like Karlsson in those 2 years. The risk v reward isn't even close imo.
All the numbers I used are 14% of the cap, which is where he is now and where I think teams will keep it, to try and be competitive. He's McDavid but I don't think any team is going to sign him much higher than that because they'll never have a chance at winning.
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In addition, the first scenario covers 8 years and the second covers 10. There is no reason he couldn't sign another contract after the 8 years are up. He'd be 37. Look at what Crosby is doing at 37. So, you'd have to add that on to the first scenario to make them equivalent comparables.
I can't imagine he'd sign for less than 8 years with the Oilers or 7 with anyone else. There is too much risk.