Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
I agree that if you do it consistently, at some point it isn't luck. However, it is difficult to say that we have seen enough to determine that it isn't luck - SOME team has to get the most hits, even if it is ENTIRELY random. It would be near impossible to determine statistically, whether or not it is luck.
Here's a real world example: If an investment manager beats the market by 5% per year, it would still take over 60 years to determine with 95% confidence, that they were doing it with skill and not luck (according to DFA).
Regardless of all that, even if it IS skill, that still isn't a strategy - every team is trying to draft well.
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I still think that there is a part of development that a team has no control over, and it's not a part that can be seen. Can't miss prospects miss all the time, and many times it just comes down to something you can't really put your finger on until after.