Quote:
Originally Posted by Psytic
I'm not saying goaltending isn't important, or that having an elite center or D and not having elite goaltending is preferable in the long run. What I'm saying and seemly what the stats confirm, is that teams that acquire the elite goalie before the elite D, Center, in the last 15 years during a retool or rebuild have not been successful. You need all pillars of the foundation but when you get the goalie first, it often means you cant successfully get the high picks you need to build up the rest of the foundation.
If you draft the center and D first, they don't prop you up as much or have the same impact of keeping you in the mushy middle like an elite goalie does.... Teams that get the goalie first statistically, have not been able to become consistent contenders as a result. Flames could buck the trend but the stats are against them.
The teams that won the cup either acquired the goalie after they already had the elite players or had consistent high picks even with the goalie. Of the teams that were in the mushy middle rebuilding that had an elite goalie, none of them became contenders... So unless they trade enough away to sink. The stats don't support this team becoming a consistent contender.
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I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion you are drawing re: draft order of goaltending vs. centre. That said, you've taken the time to find those examples that back up your position, and I'm not going to find the time to get that specific to show examples in other direction, so for the time being, I'll accept the conclusion
But even if I accept the conclusion, I think your thoughts would apply to a decision that needs to be made. I.e. if the Flames had neither an elite Centre | elite D or elite G in the system and needed to acquire all 3, then how do they use that information. If we accept your thoughts: then they should prioritize drafting around a Centre, Defense, then goaltending, and I could accept that premise.
What I don't think I'd accept, is that because the Flames happened to hit on a late round pick and got elite goaltending, I don't buy into the premise that they should (for lack of a better analogy), throw that fish back into the ocean in exchange for incremental fishing rods to hope to catch the 1c in the ocean first. I think you keep the trophy fish you have, because those are hard to come by, and you work on finding the other pieces you need.