Quote:
Originally Posted by Psytic
Here is what our AI overlord Chat GPT thinks about building around an elite goalie.
1. Florida Panthers (Late 1990s – Early 2010s with Roberto Luongo)
Elite Goalie: Roberto Luongo (acquired from NYI in 2000)
Missed Opportunity: Drafted poorly in the early 2000s (e.g., Nathan Horton, Rostislav Olesz, Keaton Ellerby)
Result: Despite Luongo's brilliance, Florida failed to build a strong core around him. They missed the playoffs in most seasons and only made it once (2000) during his tenure.
Why: Front-office instability, lack of forward depth, poor defensive core.
2. Minnesota Wild (2000s–2010s with Niklas Bäckström)
Elite Goalie: Niklas Bäckström (undrafted, signed in 2006)
Missed Opportunity: Focused on defensive systems and failed to draft or develop elite forwards consistently. (e.g., James Sheppard over Anze Kopitar)
Result: Made playoffs occasionally but never a real contender.
Why: Weak center depth for years.
3. Vancouver Canucks (Early 2000s with Dan Cloutier & then Luongo again in late 2000s)
Elite Goalie: Roberto Luongo (again)
Missed Opportunity: Though eventually successful (2011 Cup Final), early years saw high reliance on Luongo with slow growth of core players.
Debatable: They did eventually contend, but Luongo’s peak overlapped with rebuilding years.
Why: Mismanaged assets, slow build-up to the Sedin-led era.
5. Buffalo Sabres (Ryan Miller era, 2002–2014)
Elite Goalie: Ryan Miller
Missed Opportunity: Failed to surround him with consistent forward talent post-2007. Thomas Vanek was good, but not enough depth.
Result: One strong run (2006), then decline. They never reloaded properly.
Why: Traded key forwards, cap mismanagement (e.g., overpaid secondary players), no elite D core.
6. Calgary Flames (Miikka Kiprusoff era, 2003–2013)
Elite Goalie: Miikka Kiprusoff
Missed Opportunity: Too reliant on Jarome Iginla with little support; weak drafting outside top rounds.
Result: One Cup Final (2004), then mediocrity.
Why: Failed to develop depth behind Iginla; defensive core eroded.
7. Montreal Canadiens (Carey Price era, 2007–2022)
Elite Goalie: Carey Price (5th overall, 2005)
Missed Opportunity: Drafted Price instead of a top forward (Anze Kopitar was available). Later years saw poor asset use (e.g., Subban for Weber; Sergachev trade).
Result: Strong seasons but only one Cup Final appearance (2021); inconsistent offense and injuries derailed chances.
Why: Focused on defense/goaltending identity; lack of elite centers until Suzuki; inconsistent roster strategy.
Why This Happens:
Overvaluing goalies: Some teams pick goalies instead of franchise centers or defensemen (DiPietro, Price).
Cap allocation: Locking up a goalie for big money limits flexibility elsewhere.
Roster imbalance: Investing in goaltending without a core of forwards/defense often leads to wasted prime years.
Key Takeaway
Building around an elite goalie first rarely works. The successful teams of the last 15 years mostly had elite skaters already, and the goaltender either emerged later or was plugged in. The few times it worked (e.g., Tampa, LA), the goalie wasn’t the foundational piece, but rather a complement to a loaded roster.
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I think your end conclusion of "Investing in goaltending without a core of forwards/defense often leads to wasted prime years." is accurate. But it also works out in reverse as well IMO: investing in core forwards / defense without a elite goalie leads to wasted prime years.
You had a list of teams with IMO a range of good to elite goalies that failed to win the cup because of other roster deficiencies. I agree. But your list will be equally as long on teams with strong forward / defense cores who failed to win the cup because goaltending fell short. You just went looking for the examples in one direction.
Without doing the analysis, look at the goalies that won Stanley Cups in the 10 year period between 06 and 15 (which hits the bulk of your examples) - in those 10 years, IMO 60% of the cup winners had very good to elite goaltending, with exception being the Hurricanes and 3x Blackhawks. JSG, Osgood, Fleury, Thomas, Quick x2 in my opinion were all key factors in their teams winning the cup, and those teams would NOT have won cups with out them.
Point being, it is rare to win without elite goaltending, just like it is rare for elite goaltending to be enough with out an elite team in front, you need it all. Often teams that win without elite goaltending, also tend to get elite goaltending as "lighting in a bottle" for that playoff run. I think if you look at the time frame above the Blackhawks are the example of winning without elite goaltending, and they over came it with such a strong group in front (essentially, what Edmonton is hoping to do with the McD and Drai combo).
Anyway, I think unintentionally, you've spun the data to say Goaltending isn't as important as the others. But I think the answer typically is, you need it all to win in most cases, although you will always be able to see exceptions, in both directions.